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10 Sep 2024
Leveraging the landmark

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Leveraging the landmark
- Published:
10 Sep 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
29 -
We expect the end of 2024 to be a landmark moment for ABInBev
We believe the end of 2024 will mark an important moment for ABInBev for, after a protracted deleveraging journey, we expect its Net Debt/EBITDA to return 3X for the first time since 2016.
The stock will become much more difficult to ignore, what can investors expect to find?
In recent years we believe many long-only investors have been able to (largely correctly) ignore ABInBev given high leverage. But the stock is a large part of the index (market cap. EUR100bn). As these investors re-appraise being underweight ABInBev, we assess what they can expect to find:
A digital leader in Beverages firmly focussed on organic growth
ABInBev has moved from a strategy that was acquisition-led to one firmly focussed on LFL growth and is now widely viewed as the Beverages digital leader.
Material share buybacks from 2025
While ABInBev could (in theory) engage in share buybacks (SBB) of c.USD13bn per annum and hold ND/EBITDA at 3x, we believe it will want to continue gradually deleveraging. We now include SBBs of USD8bn per annum from 2025, equating to c.6.3% of the current market cap.
An inexpensive stock
On CY25e, the stock trades on 16.3x P/E, 8.6x EV/EBITDA, 11.4x EV/EBIT and an 8.8% FCF yield.
We upgrade ABInBev to Outperform, acknowledging near-term Altria placement risk
Combining SBBs (c.6%), dividend yield (c.2%) and net profit growth (c.10%) we therefore expect the stock to generate at least a high-teens TSR. ABInBev becomes our most preferred stock in Beverages and we upgrade to Outperform (TP raised to EUR69 from EUR62). We are acutely aware that upgrading ABInBev on the day Altria''s lock-up expires is a risk (we explore potential implications within). We would view any weakness on a placing as a buying opportunity.