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  • 02 Sep 2022

Mining capex plans remain rock solid


Sandvik AB (SAND:OME), 0 | Weir Group PLC (WEIR:LON), 2,977 | Metso Corporation (METSO:HEL), 0 | Epiroc Ab-A (EPIA:STO), 0 | Sandvik AB (0HC0:LON), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Mounsey Jonathan MJ | Gjani Bruno BG | Koski Andreas AK

    • 24 pages


 

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Mining capex plans remain rock solid


Sandvik AB (SAND:OME), 0 | Weir Group PLC (WEIR:LON), 2,977 | Metso Corporation (METSO:HEL), 0 | Epiroc Ab-A (EPIA:STO), 0 | Sandvik AB (0HC0:LON), 0

  • Published: 02 Sep 2022
  • Author: Mounsey Jonathan MJ | Gjani Bruno BG | Koski Andreas AK
  • Pages: 24
  • BNP Paribas Exane


We have screened what miners have said during the earnings season; most of them remain quite optimistic. A capex deterioration does not seem imminent and mining production is expected to grow. We remain positive on mining equipment names and prefer Metso Outotec and Weir Group. Macro uncertainty does not seem to be impacting mining capex plans... We have screened data and commentary from eleven of the world''s largest public mining companies to assess their near-term outlooks and capital expenditure. Most of them are talking about macro uncertainties, but they have not cut back on capex plans as demand for raw materials is expected to increase strongly over the next decade, partly driven by the energy transition and electrification trend. As Rio Tinto said: If we start adjusting our capex program because we think there is a recession in the next 6 months, we have lost it. We are in for the long haul here. Capex for our sample is expected increase by more than 20% in 2022. Most names included in our screening have now started to provide capex guidance for 2023, and a significant capex decline does not seem imminent. On aggregate, capex is expected to increase by 7% in 2023 compared to 2022. ... and mining production is expected to grow Production guidance from our sample population continues to indicate growth across several key metals, in part driven by a recovering demand-supply balance and the global energy transition. Disruptions and lower ore grades impacted production levels negatively in H1''22, but growth rates are expected to pick up strongly in H2. Our mining production tracker paints a similar picture and if it proves correct, an acceleration of mining production growth between Q3''22-Q2''23 should offer support to the aftermarket businesses of our mining equipment exposed names. How to play this? We prefer Metso Outotec and Weir Group We remain relatively positive on the mining equipment space. Our top picks are Metso Outotec and Weir...

More Content

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Concerns addressed

Companies: Metso Corporation

ABG Sundal Collier

Implications of Trumponomics for equities

Companies: PWTN0QMWAHTBMSHILSHTGFOURULEVCTWEIRNFGBLTGCOBCHGMCROHNGBUR

Research Tree

Quicker than expected return to form on better volumes

Companies: Metso Corporation

ABG Sundal Collier

VSA Capital Tech & Transitional Energy 060325

Companies: NNONETWEIRIPOIKAIMIQTXIIG0R0XAURR

VSA Capital

Definite mining attraction, debatable value

Companies: Sandvik (SAND:STO)Sandvik AB (SAND:OME)

ABG Sundal Collier
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