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12 Dec 2024
Missed opportunity

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Missed opportunity
- Published:
12 Dec 2024 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP | Faure Alexandre AF -
Pages:
11 -
Underwhelming new midterm targets
SOP unveiled new midterm targets at its CMD today. The company now expects +2-5% organic growth for FY 26-28E (previous midterm target: +4-6%), 10-11% adjusted EBIT margin in 2028 vs. 9.7% in 2024, and 5-7% FCF margin over the period, in line with the previous target. SOP also expects c. EUR1bn of total revenue from acquisitions through to 2028. The organic revenue target implied total revenue roughly in line with consensus for 2028, but downside on adjusted EBIT margin (cons had 10.9% based on Visible Alpha) and FCF margin (cons: 7.4%) at the midpoint.
Transformation underway to improve the group''s performance
Management highlighted several levers that should help the group''s performance, both on topline and profitability. These include consulting going from 9% to 12% of sales by 2028, new technology to represent c. 60% of revenue from 50% currently, operating model transformation to improve MandA integration and talent management, and increased usage of GenAI.
Changes to our estimates
We cut both our organic growth and margin expectations for 2025-28E, resulting in 1% to 8% adjusted EPS cuts over 2025-28E (details on p. 2). We have also increased our working capital requirements estimate for FY 2024 as a result of potential increased pressure from customers on payment terms, and now model EUR312m FCF this year vs. guidance of c. EUR350m.
TP cut to EUR220 (from EUR240), Outperform maintained
SOP''s CMD was not the positive catalyst we were hoping for. However, the stock now trades on c. 11% FCF yield 2025E and the new midterm targets are undemanding, leaving room for positive surprises, especially on margins. The next catalysts for the stock are improved political stability in Europe and Airbus re-accelerating, which are likely to be H2 25-loaded. We keep our O/P rating but cut our TP to EUR220 as we cut our estimates for midterm growth/margin in our DCF.