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21 Apr 2021
Monetising the Need for Speed

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Monetising the Need for Speed
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD:LON), 74.7 | Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE:ETR), 0 | United Internet AG (UTDI:ETR), 0 | freenet AG (FNTN:ETR), 0 | 1&1 AG (1U1:ETR), 0 | T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS:NAS), 0 | Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG (O2D:HAM), 0 | T-Mobile US, Inc. (0R2L:LON), 0
- Published:
21 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Mills Joshua JM | Paramaguru Kohulan KP | McHugh Sam SM | Roncier Alexandre AR -
Pages:
39 -
Our STAMP 2021 survey shows that Germany is still one of the most attractive EU telco markets, with happier customers willing to spend on faster broadband speeds and more mobile data. Whilst there is some near term headline risk on cable TV regulation we think DT and VOD are both well placed for growth. We remain cautious on TEF DE''s mobile outlook despite recent network improvement, and Drillisch''s network build plans could ultimately result in lower wholesale revenue. DT is our top pick ahead of the upcoming CMD (May 20th), and raising estimates on higher TMUS synergies means the stock offers +5% EBITDA CAGR and 7% proportionate FCF yield (2023E).
Good German Growth - DT (+) and Vodafone (+) benefit from the flight to quality
Our survey results show that DT is clearly identified as the premium German operator, in a good position to monetise new FTTH investments. Broadband switching data also suggests VOD should enjoy a recovery after poor trends in 2020, helping to offset risks from potential changes to cable TV bundling. In mobile German customers are generally more satisfied y/y with quality, as market pricing remains inflationary. Vod/DT and 1and1 look better placed to benefit than O2.
1and1-Drillisch network build unlikely to be disruptive, but still a long term risk for TEF DE (=)
New wholesale deal terms and better tower access have improved Drillisch''s opportunity to build a network. But our analysis still suggests that the operator cannot afford to be more price disruptive, with 15% market share already. That is reassuring for incumbents, but TEF D remains vulnerable on the retail side and given that DRIG wholesale fees likely account for 60% of OpFCF.
DT''s CMD (May 20th) can be a positive catalyst - we also raise numbers for TMUS (+)
Our latest STAMP results show that TMUS is still the best brand in US mobile, with opportunity to win more share in underpenetrated rural/suburban areas and also wireless broadband over time. We...