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16 May 2025
More headwinds ahead

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More headwinds ahead
- Published:
16 May 2025 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
With EUR300m of Q3 25 revenues and a 2.2% organic revenue decline driven by 2.7% organic growth in Connectivity and 6% decline in Video, Eutelsat reported numbers in line with expectations. Management has also reaffirmed its FY25 guidance
BNPP Exane View:
However, we expect the shares to react negatively to the disclosure of a EUR16m revenue and cEUR16m EBITDA hit from the French ARCOM regulator expanding the scope of sanctions on Russian media. Note that Eutelsat guidance excludes the impact of Russian sanctions. We also expect some pressure from a poor contract renewal rate with the US DoD in the Spring 2025 campaign. Eutelsat renewed 50% of its contract value (vs. a 5-year average of 75-80% and 70% last year) with the US DoD. This underpins the idea that the US DoD demand is moving away from GEO satellites. Management also indicated that it expects Export Credit Financing is unlikely to resolve the liquidity issue the balance sheet is facing and Eutelsat is looking at options to reinforce their capital structure