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31 Oct 2023
mPower to launch November 12th
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mPower to launch November 12th
- Published:
31 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
12 -
SES beats on Q3 and confirms guidance for FY23
SES delivered EUR507m and EUR262m of Q3 revenues and EBITDA, some 4% ahead of consensus. Group organic revenue growth of 3% was the strongest in 8 years and marked the second consecutive quarter of revenue growth. SES Video declined by 2.5% (vs. consensus at -4/-5%) and SES Networks reported 9% orgrev growth (vs. cons at +2%). EBITDA margins of 52% were in line. Management has reaffirmed its FY23 guidance.
mPower entry into service delayed to April 2024
SES and Boeing have signed a new commercial agreement. Boeing will upgrade mPower satellites 7 to 11 and manufacture two additional spacecrafts with no impact on SES capex. We believe it had to concede this commercial gesture as tech issues on batch 5 and 6 to be launched on November 12th have not been fully fixed. Tech issues will affect the operational life of mPower 1-6 and lead to an impairment charge in FY23. Satellites are insured and management believes have enough capacity to service existing and future customers. However, this delay drives our EPS cut.
C band cash leads to significant deleveraging
SES has cashed in the C band bonus payment and will receive an additional EUR445m from the FCC for expense reimbursement. Net debt to EBITDA stood at 3.5x as of September 2023 but will fall to 1.4x by year end. C band cash proceeds will be used to call the EUR550m/5.625% hybrid bond in January 2024 with the remainder yielding 5% pa. Financial charges will be significantly lower next year and alleviate the operating impact of the mPower launch delay and capacity constraint. The EUR150m (4% of market cap.) share buyback is to start within days.
Last bit of bad news... we think!
With the November 12th launch imminent and the full scale of the mPower tech issues now disclosed, we believe the mPower equity story is likely to regain momentum. 2025 is likely to mark a return to sustainable growth. This is much later than hoped for but still makes the...