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  • 27 Feb 2025

New launches beating, pipeline delivering & guidance likely to be ultimately exceeded


UCB (UCB:EBR), 0 | UCB S.A. (UCB:BRU), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Parkes Richard RP | Floch Victor VF | Verdult Peter PV | Ross-Stewart Kirsty KS

    • 12 pages


 

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New launches beating, pipeline delivering & guidance likely to be ultimately exceeded


UCB (UCB:EBR), 0 | UCB S.A. (UCB:BRU), 0

  • Published: 27 Feb 2025
  • Author: Parkes Richard RP | Floch Victor VF | Verdult Peter PV | Ross-Stewart Kirsty KS
  • Pages: 12
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Although UCB''s 2025 guidance ranges may have slightly disappointed some investors, its new launches are exceeding expectations with this expected to drive a 600bp margin expansion and ~50% EPS growth this year and its pipeline continues to deliver. Our revised forecasts are ahead of guidance, which we expect to ultimately be exceeded. We continue to believe UCB offers unique exposure to innovation-driven growth in EU mid cap Biopharma. Outperform reiterated. Guidance likely to prove conservative; 24-28E sales/Core EPS CAGR = 11%/29% We believe 2025E Bimzelx consensus forecasts are achievable based on the current prescription trajectory even with very conservative pricing/rebate assumptions, leaving significant room for upside. Our forecasts are modestly ahead of UCB''s guidance ranges. Longer term, we assume a 24-28E sales/Core EPS CAGR = 11%/29% with EBITDA margins likely to reach the high 30s by the end of the decade. Takeaways from FY24 results call (1) UCB is comfortable with consensus forecasts for all the key drivers. Guidance reflects divestments and expected Cimzia price pressure; (2) Bimzelx paid drug now at 50% of scrips. Increased rebates to enable unencumbered patient access will impact going forward partly offset by expected higher revenue per patient in HS; (3) UCB is confident Bimzelx sets a very high bar to other possible new entrants in the HS market, which it expects to grow by 3 fold over 10 yrs; (4) UCB is assessing next steps for AD drug bepranemab and remains optimistic despite return of rights from Roche; (5) UCB is analysing data to identify a patient population that benefits most from IL-13/17AF bispecific for future development following positive POC data. Reiterate Outperform with EUR215 price target Our TP of EUR215 implies 23x 2026E Core PE in return for a 2024-28E Core EPS CAGR of 29%. We expect ongoing launch execution to continue to drive the shares, with further upside if the new pipeline continues to deliver.

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