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25 Feb 2021
Nice in Rice, but 2021 looks tougher

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Nice in Rice, but 2021 looks tougher
- Published:
25 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Ruiz Francisco FR -
Pages:
7 -
Slightly better rice
The figures in Rice were good, with the company continuing to pass through raw material prices to consumers, with Tilda (Basmati) performing excellently. EBITDA margin in the division reached 13.0% (+75bp) in Q4. In Pasta, results came very much in line at EBITDA level despite higher sales. The better mix (giving up private label products) helped margin improvement in the first months but we have seen already a contraction of 100 bp during Q4, which like Rice was impacted by higher AandP. Overall, EBIT and Net Debt came in very much in line with our figures.
Outlook: ''normalisation'', deconsolidation and disposal of the rest of Pasta in the US
Ebro did not provide any detailed feedback nor did it do an investors call. From the FY20 presentation, we could infer that H1 21 will be impacted by further increases in raw materials (especially rice) and also transport costs, which, together with more stable demand and more promotions likely needed, could impact negatively on 2021 margins. Additionally, the company has deconsolidated not only the business disposed in North America but also other brands (including Ronzoni and 2 plants) that, according to the annual report, will be disposed during 2021. The EBITDA contribution of the business disposed in the US looks much higher than initially expected. We think that this could have a negative impact on consensus estimates for 2021.
We adjust our numbers. Underperform reiterated
We deconsolidate the US pasta business in our figures, including EUR100m from Canada in 2021 cash flow and EUR100m impact for future disposals. Despite good Q4 20 figures, we expect a normalisation in demand in 2021, higher transport costs and a negative impact of the deconsolidation of the US brand. In our view, the company still trades at demanding multiples.