In a nutshell: . NICKEL CHINA: SMM Outlook - A less than rosy picture . AURUBIS (-): Difficult smelting outlook remains Daily Prices as of May 13th / PRICE MOVERS MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: Base metals trading higher on the SHFE this morning following yesterday''s slightly lower-than-expected US CPI reading (+2.3% y/y); copper +0.5%, aluminium +0.9%, nickel +1.1%, zinc +1.1%. Iron ore futures (+2% in Singapore) hit a six-week high as trade tensions easing has spurred some optimism in the steelmaking ingredient. The Guinean Prime Minister sees Rio Tinto''s (+) Simandou iron ore JV project shipping first iron ore in November, a month earlier than previously expected. Gold (USD 3,234/oz) in the red for the second time in three days as cooling trade tensions continues to reduce the bid for safe haven assets. Macro Data this week: Eurozone 1Q25 GDP (seasonally adjusted, consensus +1.2% y/y), US initial jobless claims (prev 228k) and US Industrial Production (consensus +0.2% m/m) tomorrow. China Macro this week: China credit data due tomorrow with aggregate financing (cons. 1,260bn yuan) and New RMB loans (cons. 764 bn) / Source: Bloomberg, WIND NEWSFLOW NICKEL CHINA: SMM Outlook - A less than rosy picture On the supply side, Indonesian rainfall eased in April compared to a very wet March, boosting nickel ore supply. However, demand was negatively impacted by Trump''s reciprocal tariff policy released in early April. The overall supply of high-grade NPI is expected to continue with stainless steel mills adopting a wait-and-see attitude to procurement. Refined nickel production is expected to decrease -3% m/m in March but increase +33% y/y, impacted by production cuts of high-grade nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate in Indonesia. On the demand side, negative feedback from the stainless steel industry continues to grow, with mills margins weakening and production schedules declining. While some form of balance could emerge in May for high-grade NPI,...