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  • 08 Apr 2025

NICKEL CHINA


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,351 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,192 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 1,882

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Zeng Qiang QZ

    • 14 pages


 

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NICKEL CHINA


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,351 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,192 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 1,882

  • Published: 08 Apr 2025
  • Author: Zeng Qiang QZ
  • Pages: 14
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In a nutshell: . NICKEL CHINA: SMM Outlook - demand and cost support expected for NPI prices in April Daily Prices as of April 07th / PRICE MOVERS . MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: China vowed to ''fight to the end'' after Trump added a new threat to put an additional 50% levy on Chinese imports. Chinese President Xi has called for strengthened efforts to ''fully unleash'' the country''s consumption potential to spur growth amid tariff war with the US. Chinese State Funds also started to buy local stocks to support the market. Iron ore futures dropped on the DCE (-3.5%) and SGX (-3.0%) on Tuesday as market confidence took a hit amid the growing standoff between the world''s two largest economies. In its latest quarterly outlook, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources reaffirmed its bearish forecast for iron ore, projecting the benchmark iron ore price to average USD85/t in 2025 and fall further to USD69/t by 2030. Gold (USD 3,010/oz) recovered today after edging lower in early Asian trade amid a more cautious near-term outlook. Base metals mixed performance on the SHFE this morning; nickel +1.0%, aluminium +0.4%, copper -0.3%, zinc -1.1%. The drastic plunge in copper prices has lured purchases from Chinese fabricators to tap lower prices, as Yangshan copper premium rose to 15-month high yesterday. China Copper premiums / Source: Bloomberg . Macro data this week: FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, China Inflation on Thursday with CPI (cons. -0.1% y/y) and PPI (cons. -2.2% y/y), US CPI (cons. +2.6% y/y) also on Thursday, U. of Michigan sentiment (cons. 55.0) due on Friday, China Credit data is also due from Friday. / . NICKEL CHINA: SMM Outlook - demand and cost support expected for NPI prices in April. On the supply side, medium and high-grade nickel ore resources in Indonesia were tight due to heavy rainfall in March, leading to low production levels at smelters. Indonesia''s NPI production is expected to decrease by -0.4% m/m to 140.9kt...

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