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24 Apr 2024
Nifty and thrifty

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Nifty and thrifty
- Published:
24 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Pearson Stuart SP | Cresswell Dorothee DC -
Pages:
32 -
As investors fret over a lack of BEV demand they may be overlooking a homegrown leader in affordable BEVs. Step forward Renault, whose nifty, but thrifty BEV line-up should allow the group to successfully compete with new Chinese entrants. Outperform.
Plugging the EV (affordability) gap
We think it may be time for investors to look beyond today''s weak consumer and media sentiment towards BEVs and focus instead on the impressive cost reduction strides being made across the entire EV and battery value chain. New battery chemistries, innovative manufacturing techniques and rising scale are set to facilitate the launch of a raft of cheaper BEVs in the near future, thus Clean Mobility: Plugging the EV Gap and reaccelerating the pace of BEV adoption.
Nifty and thrifty
Perhaps more than most of its peers, Renault has grasped the need to bring to market affordable BEVs. Thus, while its BEV sales aspirations are no doubt punchy (300k by 2025 and 1m by 2031 vs 44k in 2023 at Ampere) they are underpinned by a steady stream of cheaper BEV product launches, such as the nifty Renault 5 due later this year and starting at EUR25k. This strategy is in turn supported by the group''s ambitious, but plausible, cost compression plans. We therefore see Renault emerging as a credible incumbent BEV player capable not only of competing with Chinese OEMs but also delivering ICE BEV margin parity by c.2028.
Reiterate Outperform with 26% upside
It may be too early to re-consider an Ampere IPO. Yet even without such a move Renault''s electrification strategy has plenty of merit, which, we think, will ultimately be rewarded. In the meantime, Renault''s new product momentum (in all powertrain segments) should allow profitability to withstand the sector''s price mix normalisation while an (as yet) underestimated European volume rebound is likely to help build the group''s cash generation track record. We reiterate our Outperform rating. Our EUR60 price target offers 26% upside.