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24 Sep 2025
Non material data changes

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Non material data changes
Ahead of Q3 results, we have adjusted our estimates based on recent industry trends.
We cut our EPS by 2% for FY25 and FY26 as we make small downwards revisions to revenue for the French toll roads and Energy divisions and increase minorities.
Our TP is unchanged despite the small EPS cuts. That is because we now use a slightly higher multiple to value Vinci Energies and Cobra IS'' core business (with the multiple increasing from 13.2x to 13.4x due to comps re-rating). Our Outperform rating is unchanged.
Looking at Q3 results (23 October, only revenue reported), we expect Vinci to report EUR19.02bn of revenue, of which Autoroutes EUR1.98bn, Airports EUR1.54bn, Construction EUR8.26bn, Energy EUR5.21bn and Cobra EUR1.75bn.
We do not have reliable consensus data for Q3. However, for the FY25, we model EUR73.88bn revenue for Vinci, which is in-line with Bloomberg consensus. Also, we do not expect management to change its FY guidance. As such, we would not expect significant surprises at the Q3 results.