There is little sign of Bud Light improving We had assumed that the US furore surrounding Bud Light''s association with the transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney would quickly pass, it shows little sign of doing so. Bud Light appears to have found itself at the heart of the US culture wars and a conduit for views at both ends of the spectrum. The longer that the situation persists, the likely more difficult it will be to resolve. A Bud Light inflection appears to be the principal trigger to buyside action The above observation matters given that the prevailing buyside view on ABInBev is that it is inexpensive (even if one aims somewhat below current consensus estimates), but until there is a positive inflection in Bud Light trends, the stock will struggle to gain traction. We see material downside to North American consensus EBITDA estimates We have utilised various sources to construct a detailed US model to try and reflect the likely financial implications of continued weakness as best we can. The bad news is that we materially reduce our FY23e North American EBITDA and now look for a -23% LFL decline (vs. our previous estimate / VA consensus at -11% / -9%). Primarily as a consequence of this, we reduce our FY23e group EBITDA by -3%. Ironically, we believe reduced hopes for a Bud Light inflection could trigger a stock recovery Notwithstanding North America, the broader group picture does not look so bad. Our revised group FY23e/FY24e EBITDA is only -3%/-2% below VA consensus. Furthermore, we still believe that the bottom-end of ABInBev''s FY23 LFL EBITDA guidance (+4-8%) is obtainable...just. Ironically, as investor hopes for a Bud Light inflection start to fade (we believe this is already happening), we believe that the stock should become more actionable (there no longer being anything to wait for). Keeping this in mind, we maintain our Outperform rating. ABInBev is an inexpensive stock on most common staples'' valuation metrics and as with...