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20 Aug 2025
Novonesis: 2030 targets - margins likely to disappoint, organic in line

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Novonesis: 2030 targets - margins likely to disappoint, organic in line
- Published:
20 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
9 -
BNPP Exane View:
Novonesis just released its new mid-term targets in advance of tomorrow''s Q2 results and extended conf call. For the strategic period to 2030, Novonesis targets an organic sales CAGR of 6-9% (vs 6-8% in the current strategic period) and EBITDA margins of around 39% by 2030. An upgrade to the organic growth target was widely expected so this new range looks bang in line (co consensus is at 7.2% for 2026-28). As to the margin guidance, this looks disappointing vs expectations with company consensus at 40.1% in FY28 and Bloomberg consensus at 41.4% in FY30. Q2 results will be released tomorrow although we note no update to FY guidance this evening (they often announce changes to guidance the day before results and an organic guidance upgrade was well expected) - we await further detail tomorrow at 7am UK.
Key for tomorrow''s call at 8am BST will be further detail on mid-term growth drivers and areas of investment (pointing to higher opex and capex) but our initial read is that the 2030 is on the underwhelming side vs expectations. Shares have been under pressure through the summer but still trading at a ~35% PE premium vs Specialty Ingredients peers.
2030 targets
. 2030 organic growth: 6-9% CAGR to 2030 mainly driven by volume including synergies and 1-2% price. Both Food and Health and Planetary Health divisions expected to grow within the range, emerging markets expected to grow faster than developed markets. We have limited consensus estimates running to 2030 but company consensus forecasts +7.2% (2026-28), Bloomberg +6.9% (2026-30)
. 2030 EBITDA margin: Expected to be around 39% by 2030 based on current exchange rates vs 37-38% FY25 guide. Company consensus is at 40.1% in FY28 and Bloomberg of 41.4% in 2030 (albeit with a limited number of estimates)
. ROIC ex goodwill: Expected to be around 16% by 2030, increasing from 8.3% PF 2024.
. Other targets: reconfirmation of non financial ambitions and targets
Other modelling...