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04 Feb 2025
Off the call: an encouraging tone overall

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Off the call: an encouraging tone overall
- Published:
04 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
9 -
Conclusion
Publicis'' management gave a confident message during the conf call highlighting solid Q4 performance, differentiated models and capabilities, capacity to sustain outperformance relative to peers in 2025 and potential upside from consolidation in the industry (OMC/IPG merger process).
Q1 25 mid-point of the guidance came below estimates and reflects cautious assumptions for Sapient. Considering the net new business effect and consensus estimates for top IT consulting firms, we see upside potential on Q1 25 guidance.
As for FY 25, we also see good upside potential on OSG driven by net new business momentum, likely sequential improvement for Sapient, benefits of its recent bolt on acquisitions, we think Publicis can maintain 5% OSG in 2025 (vs cons. +4.4% OSG in 2025). Potentially, Publicis could benefit from OMC/IPG merger process through additional business wins in the second part of the year.
Post the release, we expect consensus estimates by +1/+2% on the back of stronger FX impact on topline.
Action
Stock price decline -2% at the open (disappointment on Q1 25 guidance we suspect) but is now up c.+3% given encouraging comments from management during the call.
Publicis remains our top pick in the sector.
Publicis is the best positioned in the industry given its scale (notably media in the US), attractive business mix (c. 60% on connected Media, c.25% Intelligent Creativity, c. 15% on tech), differentiated go-to-market (data-infused media, differentiated offers on commerce/influencer/CTV), and efficient platform/cost structure.
Considering its access to first-party data (Epsilon), AI knowledge/expertise (25k Engineers at Sapient) and its platform organisation, Publicis looks well positioned to efficiently deploy Gen AI tools across the organisation.
We are constructive on Publicis'' recent acquisitions (Mars United Commerce, Influential) which have strengthened the group''s position in critical and fast-growing segments...