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17 Dec 2024
OFS 2025: Onwards and upwards
Saipem (SPM:BIT), 0 | Saipem S.p.A. (SPM:MIL), 0 | Vallourec (VK:EPA), 0 | Vallourec SA (VK:PAR), 0 | Viridien (VIRI:PAR), 0 | SBM Offshore NV (SBMO:AMS), 0 | TechnipFMC PLC (FTI:NYSE), 0 | TechnipFMC plc (FTI:NYS), 0 | SUBSEA 7 (SUBC:STO), 0 | Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC:OSL), 0 | MAIRE S.p.A. (MAIRE:MIL), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT:EPA), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT:PAR), 0 | AKER SOLUTIONS (AKSO:STO), 0 | Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO:OSL), 0 | Technip Energies NV (TE:PAR), 0

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OFS 2025: Onwards and upwards
Saipem (SPM:BIT), 0 | Saipem S.p.A. (SPM:MIL), 0 | Vallourec (VK:EPA), 0 | Vallourec SA (VK:PAR), 0 | Viridien (VIRI:PAR), 0 | SBM Offshore NV (SBMO:AMS), 0 | TechnipFMC PLC (FTI:NYSE), 0 | TechnipFMC plc (FTI:NYS), 0 | SUBSEA 7 (SUBC:STO), 0 | Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC:OSL), 0 | MAIRE S.p.A. (MAIRE:MIL), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT:EPA), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT:PAR), 0 | AKER SOLUTIONS (AKSO:STO), 0 | Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO:OSL), 0 | Technip Energies NV (TE:PAR), 0
- Published:
17 Dec 2024 -
Author:
Thomson Daniel DT -
Pages:
60 -
While Big Oil earnings momentum is likely to remain negative in ''25 (see Drilling for Alpha) later-cycle Services firms are beginning to hit their straps. Those exposed to advantaged offshore capex and durable gas/LNG growth, with record backlog protection, are in the early innings of growing shareholder returns. Our top picks SUBC (upgraded to OPF), SPM, SBM, TE, GTT and VK are uniquely poised to benefit, while we remain Neutral on AKSO, FTI and VIRI.
Time to favour the late bloomers
While Big Oil faces an uncertain commodity backcloth next year, casting attention to the Services may well prove worthwhile. Record offshore installation backlogs underpin positive earnings momentum and improved visibility as the sector begins to pay out investors in earnest. Service tightness and lessons from Covid should allow for better TandC''s, not just pricing, this time round. Our forecasts for offshore FIDs and awards point to a 5th consecutive year of book-to-bills 1.0 while a catch-up year for US LNG approvals presents opportunity for Technip Energies and GTT.
Still early in the innings of stepping up shareholder returns as capital discipline holds
Despite EU Services'' share price appreciation of 20% in ''24, the sector still trades at a near 40% discount to mid-cycle multiples. We continue to see client and contractor discipline as the defining characteristic of this cycle, elongating its duration into the late 2020s at least. With FCF yields growing from low teens to 15-20%+ on our top picks by 2026, shareholders are set to benefit.
Top picks target offshore exposure and gas/LNG growth - SUBC upgraded to O/P
We upgrade SUBC to Outperform from Neutral, with the c20% pullback shifting risk/reward favourably, lull in orders likely past and with upside risk to ''25 cash returns despite capex guidance. We also favour SPM (+) and SBMO (+) for offshore exposure and growing cash returns potential. Technip Energies (+) and GTT (+) offer relative protection through...