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21 Sep 2022
On an even keel

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On an even keel
- Published:
21 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Thomson Daniel DT -
Pages:
13 -
After the capital raise and backlog review, it''s all eyes on execution to rebuild interest
With the balance sheet in a much healthier position following the EUR2bn rights issue completed in July, review of 88% of the EandC backlog complete and accelerated progress on asset valorisation being made, Saipem looks to have turned the corner. We think management''s four-year plan is focused on the right elements - leaning in to Offshore EandC and drilling, adopting a more cautious approach in wind and Onshore EandC, optimising costs and realising value from assets - and progress so far has been rapid. However, it will take time to rebuild investor enthusiasm after a turbulent period and sentiment toward the company is at a low (c30% of offered rights unsubscribed for). While the pathway toward a more sustainable, cash generative business is clear, we think there are more attractive ways to play the offshore recovery, with TechnipFMC and Subsea 7 our top picks. We resume coverage after an extended period with a Neutral rating and EUR0.7/sh. target price.
Reasons for optimism on improved end market outlook
As we wrote about in This time it''s different...really, the end market outlook across much of the services space is arguably the most favourable it''s been in years. In Offshore, low breakevens and attractive CO2 emissions profiles are attracting increased activity, while service capacity amongst Tier 1 contractors is down 40%. Offshore drilling rig day rates have spiked as increased demand is met with a much leaner global fleet, and utilisation is already back to 2014/15 levels for certain rig classes. Importantly, contract durations are also lengthening, signalling confidence from customers in the duration of the upcycle. In onshore, an expected wave of LNG sanctions and an acceleration in spending in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) should tighten EandC markets.
We are above consensus on Saipem''s orders, revenues and earnings
While our order intake...