Feedback from our Paris roadshow with CEO, CFO and IR
1 - Molecular still has a big growth runway. Competition is not new to BioFire, and they are not seeing any impact on the placement and sales growth dynamic. Price pressure remains isolated to the respiratory panel. They expect strong sustainable growth coming from non-respiratory panels as cross-selling continues to increase. On SpotFire, the impact from the distribution agreement with McKesson (kicking in from Q2 onwards) and the approval of the Sore Throat should drive sales. 60% of sales are coming from the 15-plex test, which boasts a higher ASP and which BIM is the only company to offer in 15min. This supports the thesis for market share gains, in their view.
2 - Microbiology and Immunoassays menus. Market share gains are expected to continue in microbiology as interest in BIM''s upgraded portfolio increases. Despite the delayed ramp-up of Vitek Reveal in EU, they flag a higher level of education and possible adoption in the US, where they will launch later this year. The expected US approval of the TBI test and resumption of the latent-TB test roll-out following the regulatory green light should help offset PCT test sales decline.
3 - MandA. The company continues to look for technologies addressing unmet needs and reiterates that it is important for the foundation to retain control, hence no change in the strategy, in our view.
4 - CMD on 9 April. We understand the mid-term targets will be on sales and EBIT growth (at cc). Management made it clear that they won''t be aspirational, and they intend to give details on the RandD pipeline in which they will continue to invest, and pockets of efficiencies supporting them.
Separately, we update our model post FY23 results. TP unchanged at EUR115
We adjust our model post results (first take and call feedback). We forecast FY24 sales growth of 7.8% CER (guidance 6-8% CER). While we cut our FY24 EPS by 12% to reflect the cEUR50m FX impact on cEBIT, our...
