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31 Oct 2025
On the road with Carlsberg
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On the road with Carlsberg
- Published:
31 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
12 -
Feedback from our roadshow with Carlsberg
We spent some time with Carlsberg (CEO, CFO and IR team) in London. Overall, while there was some typically sensible caution on the challenges being presented by the tough consumer environment which are likely to persist into next year, we felt that the company came across as confident in being able to grow volumes in both China and Western Europe in 2026 and very confident in its strategic direction with the decision to increase soft drinks exposure. Further points of colour below:
Points of colour:
. 2026: looking toward 2026, the environment for top-line growth is likely to remain challenging and Carlsberg does not expect to be at the top-end of its medium-term ambition.
. Western Europe: In Western Europe, positive volume growth contributions in 2026 are likely to come from the 50% of volumes in soft drinks as well as premium beer, alcohol-free-brews and beyond beer, partially offset by mainstream / core beer.
. China: 2025 has been a tough year in the Chinese beer market but Carlsberg has shown it can grow and maintain a high margin in this context. 2026 is likely to be another tough year in which Carlsberg expects the beer market to be in slight decline but for its business to grow again and maintain a high margin (the level of growth will depend on the market context).
. China Western strongholds: the Q3 volume decline in the Western provinces was primarily driven by general macro weakness. Given Carlsberg market share in the strongholds it is difficult to offset market weakness via market share gain. The impact of anti-extravagance measures is less of a factor in the region compared to closer to Beijing.
. China innovation: Carlsberg has seen the trend for beer blurring with tea / dessert-like beverages. It is a niche that seems to have good growth at present. There is a constant stream of new players in China, but Carlsberg''s local team is incredibly agile, and its job is to be a fast-follower...