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27 Feb 2023
On track for return to strong growth; remains a top pick
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On track for return to strong growth; remains a top pick
UCB (UCB:EBR), 0 | UCB S.A. (UCB:BRU), 0
- Published:
27 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Parkes Richard RP | Steventon Gary GS -
Pages:
14 -
Three major new drug approvals in 2023 will position UCB for a period of strong growth
We expect 2023 guidance to represent a clearing event as it sets a defined base to UCB''s return to strong revenue growth and rapidly improving margins driven by its clutch of recently launched and soon-to-be approved drugs. We view the shares'' 22x trough PE as undervaluing this growth (''23-26 EPS CAGR of 34%) and see 50% upside to the shares in Bull cases.
On the verge of a return to strong growth; 2023-26E revenue/EPS CAGR 8%/34%
We have updated our forecasts post UCB''s FY22 results, with moderate reductions to our near-term Core EPS forecasts given higher expected tax rate and financing costs. However, these effects wash out longer term. More importantly, reiterated 2025 targets imply a minimum 7%/22% revenue/EBITDA CAGR over 2023-25E. Combined with financial de-leveraging, we forecast a 2022-26 revenue/Core EPS CAGR of 8%/34%.
Bimzelx and FcRN approvals should build confidence in 2Q23
We expect disclosed uptake metrics for Bimzelx in ex US markets and UCB''s willingness to give its blessing to 2023E Bimzelx consensus sales of ~EUR200m to help reassure investors. In addition, we believe UCB''s ability to grow its FcRN franchise by generating clinical data in niche differentiated patient populations, leveraging its global footprint and providing differentiated patient support is underappreciated. Approval with a unique MUSK+ gMG label in 2Q23 would help address this.
Shares undervaluing return to strong growth
We believe UCB''s sustainable post 2022 growth prospects are not reflected in the shares'' ~22x trough PE. We expect our price target of EUR105 to be achieved as Bimzelx, rozanolixizumab and zilucoplan approvals are achieved, bullish peak sales expectations for its new portfolio are provided and clinical data for Bimzelx is HS presented (AAD March 17-21). We see upside to EUR125 based on a more rapid launch of Bimzelx launch and better sales of the...