2024 was not Nordic banks'' year - will investors now at least be paid for waiting? Full-year results should bring total return to a strong 10% of market capitalisation, slightly stronger than in the outer years given a range of ''extraordinary'' distributions (SHB, Danske, SEB). In our view, the biggest positive surprise is likely to be SEB, whilst Swedbank might disappoint. Nordea remains our top pick. Heading into FY results - the need to know Nordics results season is due to kick off next week, with fundamentals coming back into focus after weeks of markets focussing on the macro trade. In this note we''ll focus on what will matter most, looking into the latest industry datapoints and the surprise potential on capital. Industry data - Sweden continues to look weakest Like for the sector, rates and volumes have a key role to play this year. Most prominently, Swedish banks rely on a strong activity recovery for a turnaround in their equity story. But one year after An Oligopoly Under Strain, some weaknesses and dilemmas remain unsolved - weak volumes keep margins low and the room to mitigate cuts via deposit pricing shrinks. Elsewhere, trends look somewhat more ''normal''. Sweden remains our least preferred Nordic country from a banking perspective. Our preferences remain unchanged - Nordea is our top pick After recent conversations, it seems like investors are itching for a flight to safety, likely a main reason for the SHB re-rating thus far. We understand the urge to hide (though we don''t necessarily agree with it) - but why not choose a stock with a low-beta business whilst still being cheap and offering a turn in sentiment? We continue to prefer Nordea (+), a top pick, highly diversified and one of the most profitable quality banks despite trading at a sector multiple of 7.5x P/E 26e. Our pecking order of Nordic banks is unchanged, as we remain cautious on SHB (-) and DNB (-) in the light of fuller valuations and remain Neutral-rated on Danske,...