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17 Jun 2025
Postcard from Paris

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Postcard from Paris
- Published:
17 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Growe Sebastian SGR -
Pages:
10 -
What happened?
We hosted the first day of a field trip to the 55th Paris Air Show featuring meetings with five companies in the Aerospace and Defence sector, including Hensoldt (=). The venue has 2,500 exhibiting companies from 48 countries that are expected to receive up to 300,000 visitors between June 16 and 22.
BNPP Exane View:
We draw three main conclusions for the defence companies in our coverage universe: 1) pan-European corporates do not appear to be convinced (yet) that the envisaged step-up in European defence spending to(wards) 3.5% of GDP is a given, not least due to uncertainties in regards to financing; 2) however, Germany is expected to be the key driver behind a ≥2.5x increase in procurement related military spending through 2030 as per our latest GDP defence spending framework; 3) overall willingness to cooperate among companies continues to take shape, as seen with e.g. Rheinmetall teaming up with Leonardo to address the EUR 20bn land vehicles opportunity in Italy.
Germany expected to be the front runner, more balanced view on relevant defence spending countries: In line with our findings from our recent roadshow with Rheinmetall in North America, we note a distinctive less enthusiastic view on defence spending in those countries that are likely to find it more complicated to provide the respective funding for a swift step-up in defence spending through 2030 or earlier. Against that backdrop, we recall that Thales has struck a more balanced message highlighting the need for making a consolidated effort among member states.
''Whatever it takes'' appears to be taking effect, fast and at scale: Following Chancellor Merz''s ''whatever it takes'' speech in early March, and the subsequent political endorsement of/towards a 3.5% spending on defence, Hensoldt (=) and RENK (-) started to hike their 2030 targets with the release of their Q1 results. RHM''s CFO had pointed to an expected pick-up in order activity as of Q3, which was echoed by...