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  • 02 Aug 2023

Pre-Flight Check: monthly delivery scrutiny


Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,118 | Safran (SAF:EPA), 0 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Dassault Aviation (AM:EPA), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (AM:PAR), 0 | Airbus (AIR:EPA), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Sanson Tristan ST | Daurignac Alicia DA

    • 16 pages


 

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Pre-Flight Check: monthly delivery scrutiny


Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,118 | Safran (SAF:EPA), 0 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Dassault Aviation (AM:EPA), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (AM:PAR), 0 | Airbus (AIR:EPA), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0

  • Published: 02 Aug 2023
  • Author: Sanson Tristan ST | Daurignac Alicia DA
  • Pages: 16
  • BNP Paribas Exane


July deliveries at 59 aircraft at Airbus, 41 aircraft at Boeing We tracked 59 deliveries at Airbus for the month of July, comprising: 5 A220, 17 A320neo, 27 A321neo, 3 A330neo and 7 A350. We flag that our usual methodology gave us a delivery range of 47-65 deliveries. At Boeing, we expect 41 deliveries: 32 737MAX, 2 767, 3 777 and 4 787. With Airbus''s recent CMD and H1 results now behind, this leaves no significant catalysts for the remainder of the year. As such, the market should return to closely tracking monthly deliveries as a means to monitor production momentum at OEMs and to gauge any signs of improvement of the supply chain environment given recent hiccups (e.g., quality issues at Spirit AeroSystems etc). July engine deliveries in line with ytd average, questions on GTF prioritisation going forward On the engine front, we track GTF and LEAP deliveries to be more or less in line with recent months, with 64 GTF deliveries and 100 LEAP deliveries respectively versus an average ytd of 55 and 113 respectively. After a volatile few months, with suspected prioritisation of GTF production to support the fleet in service, recent data has been hinting at a stabilisation. This dynamic will, however, continue to be a key watchpoint for the market given recent issues on GTF durability, with more recently a rare condition in powdered metal used to manufacture some engine parts prompting an acceleration of 1,200 PW1100G-JM (powering the A320neo) engine shop visits. While this will be a major theme in H2, note that RTX''s management clarified on the earnings call that the current situation should not impact 2023 deliveries at Airbus given its delivery commitments to the company. Unequal delivery momentum at business jet manufacturers We continue to track low deliveries for Falcon business jets in the month of July, with only 1 delivery expected (vs 4 in July 2022), bringing the total ytd to 10 deliveries vs 19 at the same time last year. Despite...

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