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  • 06 Jun 2022

PreFlight Check: adjusting our methodology to better track deliveries to China


Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,084 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Sanson Tristan ST

    • 20 pages


 

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PreFlight Check: adjusting our methodology to better track deliveries to China


Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,084 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0

  • Published: 06 Jun 2022
  • Author: Sanson Tristan ST
  • Pages: 20
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Deliveries to Chinese customers remain a key point of focus In recent months we have seen an acceleration of ''e-deliveries'' to Chinese customers in light of the country''s zero-Covid strategy. Airbus conducting customer acceptance flights on behalf or airlines, with the aircraft then stored until the staff can come and retrieve it. Whilst this does not impact the planned delivery schedule and Airbus'' financials, it does however make the number of deliveries more complex to track (hence the beat of Airbus deliveries vs our forecast over the past two months). We have therefore adjusted our methodology to better capture this phenomenon. The question then remains how long this situation will carry on, and if prolonged lockdowns in China may drive a reshuffling of the delivery schedule. However, with the recent trajectory of loosening of restrictions in China, we do not expect this to represent an issue at this stage. 48 deliveries expected at Airbus in May, 37 at Boeing We expect Airbus to have delivered 48 aircraft in May, with a pretty strong mix overall: 4 A220, 18 A320neo, 21 A321neo (including 5 to Chinese airlines), 3 A330neo and 2 A350. This represents 15 aircraft less than the highs of March (63 aircraft) but is in line with February and April (49 and 48 respectively). For the A320 family it still implies deliveries below the theoretical assembly rate (probably around 52-53/m in our view), and therefore continuing small inventory build-up (or lower than expected assembly). At Boeing we expect the 737MAX delivery momentum to continue, with 37 total aircraft deliveries, up 2 units from the previous month and 20 units from May 2021, of which: 1 737, 31 737Max, 1 747, 1 767, 3 777 (787 deliveries still interrupted). ...but orders have been strong at both Airbus and Boeing At Airbus, Qantas confirmed its order for 52 aircraft, of which 20 A321XLR, 20 A220 and 12 A350 (this one won as part of Project Sunrise back in 2019, but only confirmed...

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