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04 May 2021
PreFlight Check: April showers bring May flowers?
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,136 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (AM:PAR), 0 | LISI SA (FII:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (0IAX:LON), 0 | LISI SA (0EKE:LON), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0

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PreFlight Check: April showers bring May flowers?
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,136 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (AM:PAR), 0 | LISI SA (FII:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (0IAX:LON), 0 | LISI SA (0EKE:LON), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0
- Published:
04 May 2021 -
Author:
Sanson Tristan ST | Lemarie Chloe CL -
Pages:
10 -
April pauses after a strong March
Airbus deliveries slowed down in April after a very strong March. This is no surprise given company comments during the Q1 earnings call, but with 47 expected, deliveries were still solid and close to production levels (c. 50/month) albeit well below the tally of 72 in March. In detail, we expect Airbus to have delivered 3 A220, 3 A320ceo, 34 A320neo, 1 A330neo and 6 A350. Boeing is not spared either, owing to another pause in 737 MAX deliveries. In total we expect Boeing to have delivered 17 aircraft in April, driven by 8 787, 4 MAX delivered before the electrical issue was identified, 3 777 and 2 767. In both cases, April expected deliveries are multiple times above last year''s levels, which bore the brunt of the COVID-19 crisis.
Boeing still largely reliant on US deliveries; watch out for slowdown in India at Airbus
The US represents the main destination country for deliveries YTD for both Airbus (22% of deliveries) and Boeing (65%), the sole similarity on delivery mix. Indeed, Airbus'' main region of deliveries is Asia, driven by China (21% of deliveries) and India (10%), followed by Europe (21% of deliveries), while Boeing has few deliveries to Asia due to the ongoing MAX grounding. Our key takeaway from this analysis is that Airbus may face some slowdown in India deliveries, but the recent surge in traffic in China may help offset this, while Boeing needs an acceleration of traffic in either Latin America or Europe to sustain MAX deliveries as US demand may be saturated.
LEAP dominant in A320neo production, 787 stockpiling ends, MAX pauses
Since the start of the year, LEAP engines have been particularly dominant within the A320neo mix, representing 65% of deliveries and 67% of first flights. While the delivery mix expected for this year should be tilted in favour of the LEAP, it is expected to be closer to 55%; we will monitor for a normalisation of first flights in this direction. With regards to the...