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  • 05 Apr 2022

PreFlight Check: Q1 production efficiency and cost inflation may matter more than deliveries


Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,126 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Sanson Tristan ST

    • 20 pages


 

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PreFlight Check: Q1 production efficiency and cost inflation may matter more than deliveries


Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,126 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0

  • Published: 05 Apr 2022
  • Author: Sanson Tristan ST
  • Pages: 20
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Airbus Q1 deliveries seen up 4 units y-o-y, with 54 deliveries in March We expect deliveries of 54 aircraft in March, down from 72 in March 2021: 3 A220, 43 A320neo family aircraft, 2 A330neo and 6 A350. This should bring Q1 deliveries to 130 aircraft, up 5 units y-o-y. Over the quarter, the five units increase is a mix of 10 more widebodies (mostly A350s) and five narrowbody aircraft less (three A220s and two A320s less). We note that the narrowbody mix y-o-y is much more skewed to the A321neo (56% vs 44% in Q1 2021). Beyond deliveries, the focus should be this quarter on the efficiency of production and the ability to contain cost inflation. Airbus Q1 EBIT seen slightly down at Civil aircraft We expect c.EUR400m of Q1 EBIT adjusted at Airbus civil aircraft business, down c.EUR120m y-o-y. This should reflect slightly higher deliveries (program contribution up c.EUR130m), offset by an unfavourable quarterly phasing of hedge rates in 2022 (8 cents y-y deterioration of hedge rate in Q1 at 1.24) and an increase in discretionary spending costs (RandD, DDMS, ramp up costs) partially offset by better fixed costs absorption as production work continues to ramp. While pressure is looming from cost inflation, the impact should be in our view negligible in Q1. Uptick in Boeing deliveries for March closing the quarter at +26% y-o-y At Boeing, the positive 737MAX delivery momentum continues, with 43 total aircraft deliveries expected in March (vs 29 in March 2021), of which 38 737MAX (19 in March 2021). Other deliveries include 1 737 NG, 3 767, 1 777 and no 787. This should bring Q1 deliveries to 97 units (of which 85 737MAX), up 20 units y-y. Small order tally expected this month, watch for possible Russian orders restatement We expect 26 gross orders booked by Boeing in March - composed of 20 737 MAX jets for Arajet and 6 777 Freighters for DHL Express. Airbus received in March an order for six A321XLR aircraft from Air Canada, bringing total gross...

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