A relatively soft September for Airbus at 42 deliveries expected We expect a rather modest September, with 42 Airbus aircraft delivered, down from 57 last year. This rate is a bit lower than production rate, with assembly rates moving up from 47/m on all aircraft types to a total 51/m in Q3, which would imply small inventory build up, in contrast to the destocking trend expected in Q4. The 42 deliveries would include 36 narrowbodies (3 A220s, 1 A321ceo, 21 A320neos, 11 A321neos) and 6 widebodies (2 A350s, A330ceo, 3 A330neo). At Boeing, we forecast 37 deliveries in September, supported by 737MAX inventory release, offset by the continuing deliveries halt on the 787 (1 737 NG, 28 737 MAX, 3 767, 4 777, 0 787, 1 747-8). A first glance at Airbus potential Q3 performance We see Airbus Q3 deliveries at 129 units, down 16 vs the 145 of Q3 2020. We expect 18 less A320-family aircraft, with slightly favourable mix (A321s accounting for 37% of narrowbody deliveries, vs. 32% in Q3-20). Overall, we think that the headwinds from volume, FX (4c. deterioration of the hedge rate from 1.20 to 1.24), possibly recovering RandD, will be mitigated by mix, costs savings and possible net improvement in fixed costs absorption from upfront production ramp up. This may drive flattish Airbus EBIT in commercial aircraft in Q3. Given the potential for inventory release in Q4, we still see margin for upwards revision of the group''s FY guidance on deliveries (c.600 units guidance implies 136 deliveries in Q4 21, vs 159 in Q4 2020) and possibly margin (read for details AIRBUS: Margin scenarios for a cyclical recovery). Solid Q3 of OE activity for Safran, signs of positive aftermarket momentum in Q3 The aftermarket environment for engine makers remains volatile, but September seems to have shown improvements in aircraft fleet utilization vs a relatively soft August. The continuing recovery of 737MAX deliveries and an exceptional share of the Leap on September A320neo...