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03 Aug 2021
PreFlight Check: Summer recess or busy skies?
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,076 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (AM:PAR), 0 | LISI SA (FII:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (0IAX:LON), 0 | LISI SA (0EKE:LON), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0

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PreFlight Check: Summer recess or busy skies?
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 1,076 | Safran SA (SAF:PAR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (AM:PAR), 0 | LISI SA (FII:PAR), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | MTU Aero Engines AG (MTX:ETR), 0 | Dassault Aviation SA (0IAX:LON), 0 | LISI SA (0EKE:LON), 0 | Safran SA (0IU8:LON), 0
- Published:
03 Aug 2021 -
Author:
Sanson Tristan ST | Lemarie Chloe CL -
Pages:
9 -
Airbus deliveries seen down 6% yoy following strong Q2 finish
We estimate that Airbus delivered a total of 46 aircraft in July. This would be fair number following the strong performance in June but still represents a 6% yoy drop in deliveries for July. In detail, we expect the group to have delivered 5 A220, 2 A320ceo, 37 A320neo and 2 A350. The mix continued to be quite skewed to the A321, which would represent c. 45% of the A320 family deliveries vs. 33% in July last year.
Boeing deliveries expected to be 29 with a more balanced customer mix
Boeing deliveries continue to be weighed down by the pause in 787 deliveries but should still reach a total of 29 in July. These would be made up of 24 737 (1 NG, 23 MAX), 1 747 and 4 767. The customer split continues to normalize with the US and Europe both at c. 1/3rd of deliveries in the month, driven by deliveries to Ryanair. Deliveries to Asia remain anaemic and will likely remain so until the end of the year, at which point the 737 MAX is expected to be recertified in China.
Inventories stable at Airbus, still down at Boeing due to slower first flights
Despite the slightly lower deliveries, Boeing still managed to cut inventories by c. 10 aircraft this month, mainly as first flights (our proxy for production during the month) dropped on the MAX to 11 in the month, i.e. below the 16/mo nominal production rate and the 787 to 3 in the month following the announced temporary drop in 787 production from the previous 5/mo. At Airbus, we estimate a limited increase in inventories of only 2 aircraft, as first flights stood at 48 in the month.
Traffic trend good as summer season seems to deliver on recovery hopes
Good news appears to come from the air traffic side, as commercial flights have continued to recover in July. Based on FlightRadar24 data, we are now back to 75% of 2019 flight volumes, surpassing for the first time since the beginning of the crisis the performance in March-20 (72%)....