Q4 EBITDA misses by 24% on longer than expected time lags Yara reported Q4 adj EBITDA of USD765m, c24% below sellside expectations. Coming in to results there was heightened uncertainty around Q4 pricing realizations, and this turned out to be justified. With farmers having purchased volumes towards the beginning of the quarter, Yara were unable to fully capture the sharp upswing in prices that occurred during November and December. As a result, FCF was negative for the second quarter in a row. Management also announced a NOK30 ordinary dividend; while expectations for a special dividend / buyback did not materialise, we do not rule this out as a possibility during H1. Pricing dynamic remains the most significant delta for Q1 Yara indicated that it realized nitrate and urea prices at a 2-month lag during Q4 vs a typical 1-month lag, resulting in a cUSD480m impact to EBITDA. Management also highlighted soft demand during December and January. With demand starting rise in Europe, we do not see the same level of volatility around realized prices materialising during Q1. That said, urea prices have declined by c20% ytd which may create a risk that Yara is faced with lower-than-expected pricing as demand remerges. EBITDA forecasts unchanged; we are largely in line with H1 cons. but below on H2 Our adj EBITDA estimates remain largely unchanged for FY22/23. For FY22, we expect tightness in the nitrogen market to persist during H1 with the cost curve still elevated and a backdrop of strong Ag demand. We forecast cUSD1bn for Q1 with pricing tailwinds significantly offsetting higher gas cost. However, our H2 estimates sit c25% below consensus on the expectation that pricing comes under pressure as supply starts to come back to the market and the cost curve shifts downwards. We also forecast rising cost pressures from overhead inflation during the year. We retain our Underperform rating with a price target of NOK410.