Following calendar Q4 production reports, we update estimates for the two largest global miners. Both see modest earnings downgrades in the current year. We expect BHP to be at the low end of the divi payout range (minimum 50%) vs RIO at the top end of the range (40-60%) for the upcoming announcements. Tables overleaf contain estimate revisions and upcoming earnings estimate comparisons vs consensus for both miners. BHP - February 17 (UK) / 18 (Aus) We forecast fiscal 1H25 underlying EBITDA of USD 12.1bn, -3% vs Visible Alpha consensus. For the two largest divisions, WAIO (iron ore) and copper we are -2% below consensus for each. Our interim divi forecast of USD 0.51/sh is in-line with consensus on both an absolute level and payout ratio. With net debt to remain in the upper half of the USD 5-15bn range (BNPPE USD 11.9bn), we expect the payout ratio to be only marginally above the minimum 50% level, a view shared with consensus. We cut FY25 EBITDA -5%, with more muted changes (c1%) to FY26 and FY27. Drivers of the FY25 cut are operational assumptions across copper, iron ore and coking coal. Reiterate Neutral with TP of 2,130p (prev 2,300p). Rio Tinto - February 19 (UK) / 20 (Aus) We forecast 2H24 underlying EBITDA of USD 11.7bn, +2% vs Visible Alpha consensus. At the divisional level, we are ahead of consensus on copper but behind on iron ore and in-line for aluminium. Our final divi forecast of USD 2.27/sh implies a 64% payout vs underlying earnings (57% for FY24). Our divi forecast is c10% ahead of consensus on higher underlying earnings assumptions as the payout ratio is similar. Results will also include 2025 guidance on Pilbara unit cash costs (BNPPE: USD 22/t, -1% vs consensus) and copper C1 cash costs (BNPPE USD 1/05/lb, -8% vs consensus). Total estimate revisions to our model are relatively muted, with 2024-2026 EBITDA (incl JVs and associates) declining 1-2% through that period. Reiterate Outperform with TP of 6,050p (prev 6,400p).