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07 May 2025
Q1’25 conf call feedback - guidance assumes 50-60% US to China tariff

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Q1’25 conf call feedback - guidance assumes 50-60% US to China tariff
Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0
- Published:
07 May 2025 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
8 -
Legrand''s Q1''25 conference call has just finished; key takeaways include...
Guidance and Tariffs: The Company''s guidance is maintained. This is made on the basis that the current tariff regime is moderated soon. Management talked of assuming that US tariffs on Chinese imports would come down to 50% to 60% and that under this assumption the gross tariff impact on US COGS this year is likely to be c. EUR150mn to EUR200mn. Management stated pricing actions would be the main way through which this headwind is to be mitigated. Already, a first phase of price rises was enacted in April, with more to follow. Management stated that peers are equally impacted and that they see others raising prices too. Group sales growth expectations for this year are unchanged, however, within this pricing is now forecast to be higher. Back at the time of initial guidance (FYU24 results), management expected annual price rises for FY25e of 1%. They now see pricing to be 2-3% this year. With the incremental rise being focused on the US. Th CEO stated that Q1 pricing was just 0.2%. It seems then that price during the remaining nine months of 2025 is likely to be 3% or perhaps even a little higher.
Datacentres: The CEO stated the Company began 2025 assuming that Datacentres would grow 10% to 20% this year. In terms of DC book to bill, the CEO stated that it was still ahead well above 1x and that therefore the DC backlog is now larger than it was at the end of 2024. After the strong Q1 Datacentres print (all the growth in Q1 from North and Central Americas was said to be derived from Datacentres), he now sees DC growth at the higher end of expectations, 15% to 20%. The question regarding the US is now whether the non-DC part grows as well as had been expected, given that prices will have to rise so much. Indeed, the US raw mat and components tariff headwind is seen as being mainly focused on the non-DC part of the US business.
BNPP Exane View: Management faced up to all the...