This content is only available within our institutional offering.

06 May 2021
Q121 results and 15 questions for management

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Q121 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
06 May 2021 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Menteshashvili Giorgi GM | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q121 results
As was the case with Carlsberg and Heineken, a strong start to the year for ABInBev with +17.2% LFL sales growth coming materially ahead of consensus (+8.7%), with all regions significantly ahead. Turning towards profits, while LFL EBITDA growth at +14.2% was materially ahead of consensus (+6.6%), the beat was less impressive on a reported basis (EBITDA at USD4.3bn was c.4.3% ahead of consensus). Underlying EPS at USD0.55 was c.2.5% below consensus expectations.
News
We highlight Carlos Brito will be stepping down as CEO to be replaced by Michel Doukeris (currently President of North America) with effect from 1st July 2021.
Earnings
We increase our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EPS by +6%, +3% and +1% respectively, the variance reflecting an increase in the assumed rate of profits recovery during/post Covid-19.
Investment thesis
While we are not great fans of the beer sector, we believe that ABInBev is a relatively inexpensive reopening beneficiary.
Rating and target price
We increase our target price from EUR53 to EUR64, the revision reflecting both our revised estimates and (more so) an increase in our target multiple (reflecting recent sub-sector strength and ABInBev being a key reopening beneficiary).
15 questions for management
The comparison base for LFL EBITDA over Q2-Q4 is similar that in Q1. Coupling this with the fact that the world is starting to reopen, why do you expect that LFL EBITDA growth will materially slow over the remainder of the year?