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04 May 2023
Q123 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q123 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
04 May 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q123 results
On a reported basis, a strong start to the year for ABInBev with EBITDA at USD4,759m coming c.3.7% ahead of co. consensus. While on an organic basis LFL sales and LFL EBITDA growth were both materially ahead of consensus, the development was rather flattered by exceptional inflation in Argentina. For example, while LFL sales growth at +13.2% was c.330bp ahead of co. consensus, excluding Argentina, it would have been +9.1%. As to an important metric that was not boosted by Argentinian inflation, we note that volume growth was +0.9% vs. co. consensus at +1.0%.
News
We highlight that ABInBev commented that over the past 3 weeks the impact of the US Bud Light situation has been ~1% on global volumes.
Earnings
We revise our FY23e-FY25e EBITDA by +1-2%.
Investment thesis
While there are many sceptics on the name, with leverage quickly reducing and FY24 looking much better from a cost perspective, we believe ABInBev is open to positive reappraisal.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our TP moves from EUR65 to EUR71 reflecting our estimate revisions and recent sector / market re-rating.
15 questions for management
Given inflation in Argentina, your LFL sales / EBITDA metrics are increasingly becoming a less useful guide to the ''real'' organic performance of the business, do you have any plans to exclude Argentina?