This content is only available within our institutional offering.

08 May 2024
Q124 results and 15 questions for management

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Q124 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
08 May 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
17 -
Summary of Q124 results
ABInBev Q1 LFL sales grew +2.6%, in-line with consensus expectation. Volumes declined -0.6%, modestly ahead of co. cons. (-1.0%). LFL EBITDA grew +5.4%, ahead of co. cons. at +1.9%, with the beat driven by North America (-16.6% vs. co. cons. -23.9%) and EMEA (+35.1% vs. co. cons. +9.6%). Q1 Normalized EBIT at USD3.64bn was +3.7% ahead of co. cons. which contributed to a +17.7% beat at underlying EPS (driven primarily by a combination of amplification of the EBIT beat at EPS and lower finance costs).
News
We highlight that while volume trends for the US beer industry in early April were slightly worse than in Q1, this was likely primarily driven by a combination of Easter timing and colder weather YOY.
Earnings
We revise our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS estimates by c.+4% / c.+3% / c.+3%, reflecting a combination of the Q1 beat and modest upward revision to our operational estimates.
Investment thesis
There is a lot to like about the cash return story at ABInBev, but we see more re-rating potential at Heineken and Carlsberg.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR62 to EUR64.
15 questions for management
In what scenario do you envisage being at the bottom-end of your +4-8% LFL EBITDA growth guidance for 2024?