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Q124 sales and 15 questions for management
Danone (BN:EPA), 0 | Danone SA (BN:PAR), 0
- Published:
18 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Kayser Leon LK -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q124 sales
A strong start to the year for Danone with Q1 LFL sales growth at +4.1% coming +0.7% ahead of co. consensus. As to the nature of the beat, it was principally driven by Waters (+8.1% vs. VA consensus at +5.5%). LFL sales growth in EDP and SN was broadly in-line with (VA) consensus.
News
We highlighted that Danone suffered some temporary supply disruptions in EDP Europe in March/April related to retailer price negotiations.
Earnings
We revise our FY24e/FY25e/FY26e EPS by c.-3% (primarily due to FX and more specifically, the estimated impact of Argentina).
Investment thesis
While Danone offers temptation as a turnaround play, post a material re-rating in FY23 we believe a further re-rating will be harder to come by.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR66 to EUR64.
15 questions for management
Should we assume that the exit from underperformers is now largely complete and future MandA moves are more likely to be acquisitions as opposed to disposals?