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30 Apr 2024
Q124 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q124 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
30 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
17 -
Summary of Q124 sales
Carlsberg delivered a solid start to the year with Q1 LFL sales growth of +6.4% (+140bp ahead of co. cons). LFL volumes grew +2.0% and were only modestly ahead of consensus (co. cons. +1.7%) with beer volumes ahead +2.6% (VA cons. +2.7%). The primary driver of the Q1 sales beat was therefore LFL rev./HL growth +4.3% (co. cons. +3.2%) which surprised to the upside in both Asia and CEE and India. LFL rev./HL grew by around a mid-single digit percentage in all regions in Q1.
News
We highlight that Carlsberg expects its FY24 volume growth in China to be broadly aligned with that achieved in Q1 (+5%).
Earnings
We revise our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS by c.+1%.
Investment thesis
We believe Carlsberg will re-rate as the new CEO delivers a beat and raise pattern to 2024 that investors became accustomed to under the previous management team.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from DKK1,080 to DKK1,090 (reflecting modest upward revision to our EPS forecasts).
15 questions for management
Is the improvement that you expect to achieve in your gross margin this year expected to be driven solely through mix, or also through pricing ahead of COGS inflation?