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08 May 2025
Q125: conf. call: re-assuring

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Q125: conf. call: re-assuring
- Published:
08 May 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
9 -
BNPP Exane view
ABInBev continued to strike a confident tone with respect the underlying momentum in its business. Comments on the US (especially in the context of a notable peer cutting its outlook) and Mexico were particularly re-assuring. Overall, there was nothing from the call that would lead us to expect the shares to be knocked from the c.+3% gain today.
Highlights: QandA
. US strategy: the US represents over 20% of the business. It is a mature market with a very big profit pool and big growth opportunity for ABInBev as its portfolio reaches an inflection point. Looking at recent weeks, momentum continues to build and the innovation pipeline in the summer will add to this. Think it is logical to invest in marketing as the portfolio is reaching an inflection point. ABI is in it for the long-term and there is massive upside, and the growth brands have momentum. There will be a lot of activation over the summer.
. China: the industry has been improving sequentially and going into the summer/ back-end of the year see a more normalised industry. See a good off-trade and tougher on-trade. ABI is still facing a less positive impact due to its footprint (Centre/West is still doing better than the Eastern part). ABI also has a lot to do in China itself as it believes execution can be better.
. Volumes: the leap year impact was north of 1% impact; Easter shift was between 0.3% to 0.5% impact. The underlying volume momentum is good and expect to improve meaningfully going forward.
. Consumer context: overall we didn''t change the outlook and have been encouraged by the Q1 delivery. From a macro perspective, ABI is actively monitoring the consumer environment. While a lot was already said about consumer sentiment, ABI is also monitoring consumer behaviour and from this perspective see that beer is more resilient than some other categories and participation in ABI''s brands is growing.
. US innovations: non-alcohol is being an important driver with...