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08 May 2025
Q125 results and 15 questions for management

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Q125 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
08 May 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
17 -
Summary of Q125 results
ABInBev Q125 LFL sales grew +1.5% which was c.+30bp ahead of company consensus. The modest beat was driven by volumes (-2.2% vs. co. cons. -2.6%) while organic rev./hl growth at +3.7% was broadly in-line with expectation. Q1 organic EBITDA growth at +7.9% was materially ahead of consensus (+3.1%) but the USD EBITDA beat was more modest at c.+1%. Underlying EPS was a c.+10% beat driven by a combination of better-than-expected finance costs, tax and the EBIT beat. ABInBev re-iterated all elements of its FY25 outlook.
News
We highlight that ABInBev estimates the majority of the Q1 volume decline was driven by calendar-related factors (lapping the leap year being a north of -1% impact and Easter timing a -0.3%-0.5% impact).
Earnings
We revise our FY25e-FY27e EPS estimates by +3-4% (primarily driven by lower finance cost forecasts).
Investment thesis
We expect material share buybacks to drive a high-teens mid-term TSR at ABInBev.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from EUR60 to EUR64.
15 questions for management
Did you observe a shift in beer category demand trends, for better or worse, in any of your major markets through April?