BNPP Exane View
Q1 LFL sales and volumes are very modestly ahead of consensus expectation and USD EBITDA is a c.+1% beat. With respect to the organic profit beat, we note weakness in Asia-Pac (China) and North America has been more than offset by strength in South America and EMEA. We call the shares up c.+1% relative to market.
Headline metrics
. LFL: +1.5% (co. cons: +1.2%)
. Vol: -2.2% (co. cons: -2.6%)
. Rev./HL: +3.7% (co. cons: +3.8%)
. Sales: USD13,628m (-1.3% vs. co. cons.)
. EBIT: USD3,587m (+1.3% vs. co. cons.)
. EBITDA: USD4,855m (+0.9% vs. co. cons.)
. LFL EBITDA: +7.9% (co. cons. +3.1%)
. EBITDA margin (%): 35.6% (co. cons. 34.9%)
. EPS (basic, underlying): USD0.81 (+10.5% vs. co. cons.)
Top-line drivers
Scanning the top-line drivers by region, we note that the small Q1 top-line beat was primarily driven by South America (+8.5% vs. co. cons. +4.6%) and EMEA (+4.8% vs. co. cons. +3.5%), which more than offset softer trends in North America (-4.7% vs. co. cons. -2.6%) led by the US and Asia Pacific (-7.7% vs. co. cons. -5.8%), driven by China.
Note: US LFL sales declined -5.1% and within this STWs declined -6.7% (impacted by 1 less selling day) and Rev./HL increased +1.7%. STRs declined -5.4%, estimated to have outperformed the industry which was negatively impacted by adverse weather and Easter shipment phasing.
Bottom-line drivers
. EBITDA margin: +130bp YOY (+218bp LFL).
. EBIT margin: +130bp YOY (+218bp LFL) which reflects GM +140bp (+203bp LFL); SGandA -20bp; and other op. income +20bp.
. By region: we note that the c.+1% USD EBITDA beat in Q1 was driven by a combination of EMEA, South America and the Global Export and Holding line. This more than offset EBITDA below co. cons. expectation in North America and Asia-Pacific.
Other
. BEES: USD11.6bn in GMV in Q125 (+10% YOY)
. Digital D2C: sales of USD117m from DTC megabrands in Q125 (+12% YOY).
. Beyond Beer: +16.6% LFL sales in Q1.
. SBB: 70% of USD2bn SBB program completed as of 5...
