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Q125 sales and 15 questions for management
Danone (BN:EPA), 0 | Danone SA (BN:PAR), 0
- Published:
23 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Queulvee Camille CQ -
Pages:
14 -
Summary of Q125 sales
While Q125 LFL sales growth at +4.3% was c.50bp ahead of co. consensus, vol/mix at +1.9% was 70bp below co. consensus. The pricing beat was principally driven by Latin America (with +11.1% pricing vs. Bbg consensus at +2.8%). As to the vol/mix miss, we note that both North America (+0.9% vs. Bbg consensus at +2.6%) and ROW (-1.0% vs. Bbg consensus at +2.2%) were light.
News
We highlight that Danone expects an improved performance from Creamers from Q2.
Earnings
We revise our FY25e/FY26e/FY27e EPS by +1%.
Investment thesis
While we can see the attraction in the protein narrative, post the material re-rating that Danone has experienced over recent years, we struggle to argue for a further re-rating at this juncture.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our TP moves from EUR75 to EUR79 (principally reflecting an increase in target multiple).
15 questions for management
Given the absence of a leap day headwind, assumed more normalised weather in Mexico/Indonesia and more Creamers availability, why should LFL sales growth not meaningfully accelerate in Q2?