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23 Apr 2025
Q125 sales: LFL beat, but pricing driven (Latam)

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Q125 sales: LFL beat, but pricing driven (Latam)
BNPP Exane View
While there is a +50bp headline LFL beat (vs. co. consensus), vol/mix is a light (-70bps below co. consensus) and the pricing beat is primarily driven by Latin America. On this basis we expect a broadly neutral (to sector) share price reaction.
Headline figures
. LFL: +4.3% (co cons: +3.8%; BBG cons: +3.9%)
. Vol/mix: +1.9% (co cons: +2.6%; BBG cons: +2.8%)
. Price: +2.4% (co cons: +1.2%; BBG cons: +1.1%)
Top-line drivers
Scanning the top-line drivers by segment / geography, the principal driver of the beat is Latin American pricing (+11.1% vs. Bbg cons at +2.8%). As to the vol/mix miss, we note that both North America (+0.9% vs. Bbg cons at +2.6%) and ROW (-1.0% vs. Bbg cons. at +2.2%) are light.
Bottom-line drivers
N/A - only a sales update
Other
Nothing of note.
Guidance (unchanged)
. LFL: +3-5% (Bbg cons: +4.1% LFL)
. EBIT: recurring EBIT to grow faster than sales (Bbg cons: +30bps YOY)
Likely revisions of consensus
We estimate that consensus likely has around a -4% earnings downgrade weighing on FY26 from cumulative FX.
Sector read across
We will watch Latin America pricing from its notable Swiss peer tomorrow.
Conference call details
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