BNPP Exane View
Q1 LFL sales are a touch light (-50bp miss vs. co. cons) driven by volumes. While a return to vol. growth in China in Q1 (+2% vol) is encouraging, given the YTD strength of the shares we expect negative share price reaction today (around low-single digits).
Q1 headline metrics
. LFL sales: -1.5% (co. cons: -1.0%; BBG cons. -0.6%)
. LFL vol: -2.3% (co. cons: -1.7%; BBG cons. -1.7%)
. LFL price / mix: +0.8% (co. cons: +0.8%; BBG cons. +1.0%)
Top-line drivers
Scanning the top-line drivers by region, we note that the volume miss relative to company consensus expectation was driven by a combination of: Asia (vols -2.1% vs. co. cons. -0.8%) where Carlsberg comments on +2% vol growth in China being offset by a soft start to the year in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia (energy drinks); and CEEI (vols. -1.7% vs. co. cons. +0.8%) which was impacted by soft consumer sentiment in Ukraine and a soft market in Kazakhstan where Carlsberg lapped stock build in Q1.
Bottom-line drivers
N/A - only a sales update.
Other metrics
. Q1 vol. ex. San Miguel UK : -1.1%
. Q1 organic beer vol: -2.3%
. Q1 organic other beverages vol: -2.5%
. China: solid start to the year; +2% vol growth in Q1 and flat rev./HL. China beer industry declined by est. LSD.
. Western Europe: we note Poland volumes grew by +DD in Q1.
. Britvic: Q1 LFL vols -4.1% and sales -5.3% (reflecting tough comps, the phasing of Easter and deliberate actions to optimise the business outside the UK and Ireland, including the termination of certain contracts). Based on the performance and progress of the integration of the business so far, Carlsberg continues to expect EBIT of GBP250m from Britvic in 2025. Integration is progressing well and according to plan.
FY25 outlook
. LFL EBIT: +1-5% (co. cons. +3.4%)
. FX on EBIT: expect translation impact of around -DKK200m excluding the impact of hyperinflation accounting in Laos which will be included in scope (BBG cons. +DKK60m).
. Finance expenses ex....
