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25 Jul 2025
Q126 sales and 15 questions for management
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Q126 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
25 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
18 -
Summary of Q126 sales
Q1 LFL sales grew +5.7% which was +330bp ahead of company consensus. The beat was driven primarily by the Liqueurs and Spirits division (+17.3% vs. co. cons. 6.0%) where North America sell-in grew by very strong double-digits on very low comps. Remy Cointreau estimates its overall group value depletions declined -2.2% in Q1, including a low double-digit decline in US Cognac (cf. -HSD in Q4) partially offset by +HSD growth in China Cognac.
News
We highlight that Q1 LFL sales growth was impacted by disruption to the China Duty Free channel and a distributor change in California which each negatively impacted group growth by c.-2.5%-pts.
Earnings
We revise our FY26e/ FY27e/ FY28e EPS by c.+14% / c.+20% / c.+17% primarily driven by removal of the estimated impact from US tariff impacts (on the EU) which reflects our view that the most probable outcome of US/EU tariff negotiations will include a waiver from additional duties for spirits.
Investment thesis
While LFL sales may soon benefit from lapping destock comps. in the US, longer-term concerns for the Cognac category persist.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. We revise our target price to EUR54 from EUR42.
15 questions for management
What gives you confidence that your US value depletion growth will materially accelerate in the balance of FY26 from the high-single digit decline in Q1?