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30 Jul 2025
Q2/H125 results 1st take: modest beat notwithstanding Waters

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Q2/H125 results 1st take: modest beat notwithstanding Waters
BNPP Exane View
With Q2 vols meaningfully ahead of expectations notwithstanding a weak Waters showing, we believe that there is enough here to warrant a positive share price reaction. We call the stock +1-2%.
Headline figures
. Q2 LFL: +4.1% (co. cons: +3.8%; Bbg cons: +3.8%)
. Q2 Price: +1.0% (co. cons: +1.4%; Bbg cons: +1.4%)
. Q2 Vol: +3.2% (co. cons: +2.5%; Bbg cons: +2.4%)
. H1 EBIT mgn. YOY: +0.5% (co. cons: +0.4%; Bbg cons: +0.4%)
. H1 EBIT: EUR1,811m (+0.6% vs. co. cons; +0.4% vs. Bbg cons)
. H1 EPS (fd): EUR1.91 (+4.4% vs. co. cons; +4.1% vs. Bbg cons)
Q2 top-line drivers
Scanning the top-line drivers by division, we note that Waters with -0.5% LFL (vol/mix -0.5%) is materially below Bbg consensus expectations (+3.5%), with Danone making reference to adverse weather conditions in Mexico (which is no great surprise given recent beverage peer reporting). This has been more than compensated for by SN with +8.7% LFL sales growth coming materially ahead of Bbg consensus (+5.3%). Danone makes reference to DD growth in SN in CNAO.
H1 bottom-line drivers
The +49bp H1 EBIT margin reflects +139bp margin from operations and -92p of reinvestment in AandP, product superiority and capabilities. Overheads were -17bp and other effects (FX, scope) were +19bp.
Other
. FCF: EUR1,172m (note: co. cons FCF: EUR1,205m);
. ND: EUR9.1bn
Outlook / Guidance (unchanged)
. LFL: between +3-5% (note: co. cons: +4.0%)
. EBIT margin: recurring operating income growing faster than sales (note: co. cons: +40bp YOY)
Likely revisions of consensus
We expect to see modest upward pressure to FY25 consensus EBIT.
Sector read across
Limited: the notable Swiss peer has already reported.
Conference call details
Today at 08:00 CET / 7.00 UKT. For the webcast: Click here. Dial-in: Click here