This content is only available within our institutional offering.
30 Jul 2021
Q221 results and 15 questions for management
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Q221 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
30 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Menteshashvili Giorgi GM | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q221 results
Q2 LFL sales at +27.6% was ahead of consensus expectation (+24.1%) driven by strength in South America and the Middle Americas. Turning to profits, headline EBITDA was also modestly (c.+2%) ahead of consensus expectation but this includes a c.5% (USD226m) benefit from Brazilian tax credits. LFL EBITDA growth at +31.0% (which does not include the tax credit) was below consensus expectation at +35.3% with the main driver of the weaker than expected profit growth being North America where LFL EBITDA declined -0.6% in Q2 (cons. +6.8%) due to higher supply chain costs and variable pay accruals.
News
We highlight that the new CEO''s focus will be to take a customer and consumer centric approach and to invest in accelerating what is working, which includes: category development; premiumisation; health and wellness; beyond beer and the digital transformation.
Earnings
We revised our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EPS by -6%, -3% and -3%.
Investment thesis
While we are not great fans of the beer sector, we are mindful that ABInBev is a relatively highly leveraged re-opening beneficiary.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR68 to EUR62 reflecting our estimate revisions and a 1 point reduction in our target EV/EBIT multiple.
15 questions for management
If we purely focus upon the beer category, what do you believe the momentum market growth rate of ABInBev would be in a post Covid world?