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28 Jul 2022
Q222 results and 15 questions for management

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Q222 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
28 Jul 2022 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q2/H1 22 results
Q2 LFL sales growth at +11.3% was ahead of co. consensus (+9.5%) driven by better-than-expected volume growth at +3.4% (co. cons +1.9%), as stronger South America volumes were partially offset by supply issues in South Africa. Turning to the bottom-line, LFL EBITDA growth of +7.2% came in ahead of co. consensus (+5.6%), however excluding the benefit from one-off Brazilian tax credits, Q2 absolute EBITDA trailed consensus by -2%.
News
We highlight that ABInBev has yet to see any sign of deceleration in Beer trends across its markets.
Earnings
We revise our FY22e/FY23e/FY24e EPS by c.-1.0%, +0.5% and +0.8% respectively.
Investment thesis
While ABInbev is relatively inexpensive, within Beverages we retain our longstanding preference for the Spirits sub-category.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating; our target price moves from EUR54 to EUR58 (primarily relating to the 6-month roll-forward of our target profits).
15 questions for management
You mentioned that during periods of economic pressure, consumers have often downtraded from more premium alcohol categories into premium beer, are you seeing this take place across any of your markets?