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03 Aug 2023
Q223 results and 15 questions for management

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Q223 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
03 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q223 results
Q2 LFL sales growth at +7.2% was c.80bp ahead of co. consensus driven by a rev/hl. beat (+9.0% vs. co. cons. at +7.9%). The volume decline at -1.4% was in-line with co. cons. expectations. While LFL EBITDA growth at +5.0% was 460bp ahead of co. cons, the absolute EBITDA delivery at EUR4,909m was only +1.1% ahead due to FX (South America being the culprit). Basic underlying EPS at USD0.72 was 7.4% ahead of co. cons.
News
We highlight that ABInBev''s US market share has been relatively stable since late April.
Earnings
We revise our FY23e-FY25e EBITDA by -1% to -2%.
Investment thesis
We believe that investors will gradually start to accept that the Bud Light situation does not continue to pose material downside to ABInBev consensus and hence have more confidence in playing the stock.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our TP moves from EUR64 to EUR65 reflecting our estimate revisions and recent minority valuation / FX moves.
15 questions for management
Excluding Argentina, do you anticipate that FY LFL EBITDA growth will still be in the +4-8% range;