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09 Aug 2023
Q223 results and questions for management

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Q223 results and questions for management
- Published:
09 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Lim Joan JL | Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q223 results
Novozymes missed on both top and bottom line with Q2 organic growth of +2% (co cons +3.6%) with ~+6% pricing. All divisions missed on organic growth except for Bioenergy (+26% vs cons +17%). Household Care organic growth was flat, Food, Beverages and Human Health -3%, Ag, Animal Health and Nutrition -7% and Grain and Tech Processing -14%. Adj EBIT of DKK1011m missed consensus by -7% with margins of 24.0% vs consensus of 24.8%, declining -200bps sequentially despite a +130bps improvement in gross margin.
News
Novozymes lowered the FY23 organic growth guidance range to 4-6% from 4-7% previously. This implies an acceleration in H2 vs 3% in H1 against easier comps but also assuming a ''levelling-off'' of consumer destocking headwinds.
Earnings and target price
We make changes to our estimates to reflect learnings from the Q2 release and recent moves in FX. Our target price remains unchanged at DKK322/share.
Investment thesis
We are cautious on the longer term organic growth outlook and premium valuation of both standalone Novozymes and of NewCo (merger with Chr Hansen). We also expect the uncertainty of the pending merger transaction to remain an overhang on shares with the deal not expected to close until Q4 23/Q1 24.
15 questions for management
Novozymes only started to call out destocking headwinds in the guidance from Q2. Why do you think you were impacted by destocking several quarters later than ingredients peers who first flagged destocking in late 2022? What gives you confidence that destocking headwinds will ''level-off'' in H2?