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01 Aug 2024
Q224 results and 15 questions for management

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Q224 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
01 Aug 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
17 -
Summary of Q224 results
Q2 LFL sales growth at +2.7% (vol. -0.8%) was an -80bp miss relative to company consensus (primarily driven by APAC). While Q2 EBITDA at USD5.3bn was broadly in-line (+0.4% vs. co. cons.), LFL EBITDA growth at +10.2% was a +190bp beat driven by strength in North America (+13.8% vs co. cons. +2.3%) and South America (+21.7% vs co. cons. +13.4%). We note that LFL EBITDA in the US grew by +17.5% in Q2 driven by productivity initiatives and SGandA efficiencies as ABInBev laps the Bud Light issues it faced last year. Q2 EPS at USD0.90 was +6% ahead of co. cons.
News
We highlight that, while ABInBev is happy with what it has done so far, it believes there is much more to be done on US productivity improvements.
Earnings
We revise our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS estimates by +1% / -2% / -2% (driven primarily by FX).
Investment thesis
There is a lot to like about the cash return story at ABInBev, but we see more re-rating potential at Heineken and Carlsberg.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR63 to EUR62.
15 questions for management
Given sequentially easier comps in Q3/Q4, are there any factors to consider which would lead us to believe LFL EBITDA growth in the US will not accelerate from the +17.5% achieved in Q2?