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31 Jul 2025
Q225: conf call: confident but little incremental

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Q225: conf call: confident but little incremental
- Published:
31 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
10 -
BNPP Exane view
ABInBev acknowledged that Q2 volumes were not where they want them to be but continued to strike a confident tone. While we view the c.-11% share price reaction today as very harsh, very harsh reactions to volume misses have been the norm this results season. There was nothing on the call that would lead us to expect a sharp rebound in the shares today.
Points of colour below. Please note, due to an IT issue, a section of the QandA write-up is missing below (there was nothing share price sensitive within it). Apologies for this.
Highlights: QandA
. Volume growth outlook: good to remember we have operations in over 50 countries and it is a great footprint. But this can expose us to volatility short-term. Since covid, volumes have grown +0.5% on average. In Q2 vols were not where ABI wanted to be but delivery on other metrics was very consistent. Overall remain confident on footprint that we have and the footprint and strategy.
. EBITDA in better vol context: margin expanded in 4/5 regions in Q2. Don''t provide an outlook but said 2025 looks to be a normal year of cost inflation. If you look at the FX, expect phasing of FX-driven cost inflation on Mexico and Brazil to be from Q2 onwards. The fundamentals drivers of the industry leading margins remain intact.
. US: proposed back in 2017 a rebalancing of the portfolio and have since been investing in the brands that we felt had potential. The growth at present is being led by Michelob Ultra and Busch Light. With fewer innovations but more meaningful innovations have seen bigger impact on Q2. The learning from this is consistency and see further acceleration in the beyond beer space. There is much more to do in the US but pleased with the momentum behind the brands at present.
. Mexico: results in Mexico in Q2 were good and gained modest share. Last year was great Q for weather and had benefit of government support in the base. See that the economy continues to progress but consumer...